Band Hernan Nessi
BUENOS AIRES, December 16 (Reuters) – Argentina’s gross domestic product (GDP) likely rose 12% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2021, according to the median estimate of a Reuters analyst poll, rebounding strongly from a 10.2% drop to the same period last year.
The grain-producing South American nation has seen its economy recover faster than expected after being hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, as the government raised annual growth forecasts to around 10%.
“In the third quarter, a recovery in consumption stood out,” said Isaías Marini, an economist at consultancy Econviews, who estimated a 12% rise and expects the recovery to last until the last. quarter of the year with rising wages.
“Wage improvements, the recent easing (of restrictions) and the reactivation of credit suggest that the year will end even above the double digits. But the short-term risks are the scarcity of reserves to finance growth and the resulting exchange rate instability.”
Estimates from 17 local and foreign analysts ranged from an outlier low of 6.6% to a high of 12.2% for the July-September quarter. The average forecast was for an increase of 11.4%.
“One of the main drivers today comes from the extractive activity of oil and fuel production. The agricultural sector is also showing good performance and good prospects,” said Pablo Besmedrisnik, economist at the consulting firm Invenómica.
“Both sectors are essential to obtain the currencies that Argentina needs in the short and medium term.”
The South American nation, which recorded a 17.9% rise in GDP in the second quarter, is expected to release the third quarter figure later on Thursday.
(Reporting by Hernan Nessi; Editing by Adam Jourdan, Kirsten Donovan)
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